When gold jumps hard in three days it feels like the last train out. It almost never is. Whichever size of jump you look at, the market gave that price back to you, or better, about 96% of the time, and usually within days.
25 / 26
gave a second chance
96%
hit rate
7.8%
median discount later
4
median trading days to 2% cheaper
26 spikes of 7% or more across three trading days since 1975. 21 of them reached 2% cheaper. The one that kept going was 1982-08-20. Even those only just got away: the furthest stayed 0.26% above the spike price.
the spikethe spike pricefirst day back at that pricecheapest close in the six months after
2026-01-28
2026
Second chance
Spike close$5,418.55
Ran up+7.0% in 3 days
Back to that price after1 trading day
2% cheaper after2 trading days
Cheapest it got$3,999.50, 26.2% cheaper
That took125 trading days (2026-06-24)
2025-04-11
2025
Second chance
Spike close$3,237.67
Ran up+8.6% in 3 days
Back to that price after1 trading day
2% cheaper afternever
Cheapest it got$3,177.67, 1.9% cheaper
That took27 trading days (2025-05-14)
2020-03-24
2020
Second chance
Spike close$1,621.05
Ran up+10.1% in 3 days
Back to that price after1 trading day
2% cheaper after5 trading days
Cheapest it got$1,574.90, 2.9% cheaper
That took5 trading days (2020-03-31)
2011-08-10
2011
Second chance
Spike close$1,792.79
Ran up+8.0% in 3 days
Back to that price after1 trading day
2% cheaper after2 trading days
Cheapest it got$1,545.18, 13.8% cheaper
That took100 trading days (2011-12-29)
2008-11-21
2008
Second chance
Spike close$800.40
Ran up+8.4% in 3 days
Back to that price after6 trading days
2% cheaper after6 trading days
Cheapest it got$756.45, 5.5% cheaper
That took10 trading days (2008-12-05)
2008-09-17
2008
Second chance
Spike close$863.85
Ran up+12.8% in 3 days
Back to that price after1 trading day
2% cheaper after11 trading days
Cheapest it got$712.30, 17.5% cheaper
That took40 trading days (2008-11-12)
2006-07-03
2006
Second chance
Spike close$623.49
Ran up+7.5% in 3 days
Back to that price after1 trading day
2% cheaper after49 trading days
Cheapest it got$567.00, 9.1% cheaper
That took67 trading days (2006-10-04)
2001-05-18
2001
Second chance
Spike close$287.55
Ran up+7.2% in 3 days
Back to that price after1 trading day
2% cheaper after4 trading days
Cheapest it got$265.25, 7.8% cheaper
That took51 trading days (2001-07-30)
2000-02-04
2000
Second chance
Spike close$310.30
Ran up+9.8% in 3 days
Back to that price after1 trading day
2% cheaper after1 trading day
Cheapest it got$270.30, 12.9% cheaper
That took79 trading days (2000-05-25)
1999-09-28
1999
Second chance
Spike close$309.00
Ran up+16.1% in 3 days
Back to that price after1 trading day
2% cheaper after1 trading day
Cheapest it got$276.10, 10.7% cheaper
That took49 trading days (1999-12-06)
1990-08-14
1990
Second chance
Spike close$411.50
Ran up+7.3% in 3 days
Back to that price after1 trading day
2% cheaper after1 trading day
Cheapest it got$360.75, 12.3% cheaper
That took118 trading days (1991-02-06)
1986-08-12
1986
Second chance
Spike close$388.00
Ran up+7.2% in 3 days
Back to that price after1 trading day
2% cheaper after3 trading days
Cheapest it got$374.40, 3.5% cheaper
That took3 trading days (1986-08-18)
1985-03-19
1985
Second chance
Spike close$316.75
Ran up+8.9% in 3 days
Back to that price after2 trading days
2% cheaper after71 trading days
Cheapest it got$308.25, 2.7% cheaper
That took71 trading days (1985-07-02)
1983-11-30
1983
Second chance
Spike close$405.00
Ran up+7.7% in 3 days
Back to that price after1 trading day
2% cheaper after7 trading days
Cheapest it got$365.10, 9.8% cheaper
That took34 trading days (1984-01-24)
1982-10-07
1982
Second chance
Spike close$418.50
Ran up+8.0% in 3 days
Back to that price after14 trading days
2% cheaper after22 trading days
Cheapest it got$398.00, 4.9% cheaper
That took26 trading days (1982-11-12)
1982-08-20
1982
No second chance
Spike close$386.50
Ran up+14.4% in 3 days
Cheapest it got$387.50
Closest to the spike price+0.26%
So waiting would have cost0.26%
1982-07-12
1982
Second chance
Spike close$343.00
Ran up+11.8% in 3 days
Back to that price after13 trading days
2% cheaper after20 trading days
Cheapest it got$333.50, 2.8% cheaper
That took22 trading days (1982-08-11)
1982-04-07
1982
Second chance
Spike close$354.00
Ran up+8.0% in 3 days
Back to that price after1 trading day
2% cheaper after7 trading days
Cheapest it got$296.75, 16.2% cheaper
That took49 trading days (1982-06-21)
1980-06-06
1980
Second chance
Spike close$597.00
Ran up+8.1% in 3 days
Back to that price after3 trading days
2% cheaper afternever
Cheapest it got$590.00, 1.2% cheaper
That took4 trading days (1980-06-12)
1980-04-25
1980
Second chance
Spike close$551.50
Ran up+9.8% in 3 days
Back to that price after1 trading day
2% cheaper after1 trading day
Cheapest it got$490.00, 11.2% cheaper
That took4 trading days (1980-05-01)
1980-03-20
1980
Second chance
Spike close$561.00
Ran up+15.9% in 3 days
Back to that price after1 trading day
2% cheaper after1 trading day
Cheapest it got$485.25, 13.5% cheaper
That took5 trading days (1980-03-27)
1980-01-02
1980
Second chance
Spike close$559.50
Ran up+18.7% in 3 days
Back to that price after51 trading days
2% cheaper after52 trading days
Cheapest it got$481.50, 13.9% cheaper
That took54 trading days (1980-03-18)
1979-09-18
1979
Second chance
Spike close$375.75
Ran up+12.8% in 3 days
Back to that price after1 trading day
2% cheaper afternever
Cheapest it got$369.00, 1.8% cheaper
That took1 trading day (1979-09-19)
1979-02-07
1979
Second chance
Spike close$251.60
Ran up+9.3% in 3 days
Back to that price after1 trading day
2% cheaper after3 trading days
Cheapest it got$231.90, 7.8% cheaper
That took47 trading days (1979-04-17)
1976-10-29
1976
Second chance
Spike close$123.15
Ran up+7.6% in 3 days
Back to that price after1 trading day
2% cheaper afternever
Cheapest it got$122.50, 0.5% cheaper
That took2 trading days (1976-11-02)
1976-09-06
1976
Second chance
Spike close$113.65
Ran up+7.5% in 3 days
Back to that price after1 trading day
2% cheaper after1 trading day
Cheapest it got$110.75, 2.5% cheaper
That took1 trading day (1976-09-07)
A spike is any jump of that size or more across three consecutive trading days, close to close, with signals kept at least 21 trading days apart so one long run is not counted twice. For each one, the following 126 trading days (about six months) are searched for a close at or below the spike close. Prices are XAU/USD spot. The hollow marker and the teal dot are different events and often sit a long way apart: the hollow marker is the first day price traded back at the spike level, which is frequently the very next day, while the teal dot is the single cheapest close anywhere in the following six months, which can be months later.
Source: XAU/USD daily spot, 1975-01-02 to 2026-08-07. Pre-1990 spot data is thinner and less reliable than modern data; the result holds without those years. Each set is the full population over the period, not a selection. Past behaviour is not a forecast, and none of this is financial advice.
