Video sources
Who Actually Owns US Government Debt
Foreign holdings to May 2026 · debt to 29 May 2026 · built 2026-08-19
Every number from the video, with the source next to it, so you can check me instead of believing me. The argument is in the video. This page is just the receipts.
US public debt todayTotal US public debt outstanding at 31 March 2026, from the Treasury’s Debt to the Penny series. The 2015 comparison is the same series at 31 March 2015.
was $18.2tn in 2015
Foreign central bank holdingsThe Foreign Official line in the Treasury International Capital release, May 2026. That line counts holdings by foreign central banks and governments, and unlike the country table it is not distorted by where the securities are held in custody.
was $4.17tn in 2015
Their share of the pileForeign official holdings divided by total US public debt, in the same month. 3,848.0bn over 39,207.8bn for May 2026 gives 9.8%.
was 23.0%, and it falls every year
New debt since 2015Total US public debt at 31 March 2026 minus the same figure at 31 March 2015. 39,065.4bn less 18,152.1bn is 20,913.3bn, which rounds to $20.9tn.
they funded almost none of it
The tiles use the quarter-end figure for 31 March 2026. The chart below runs two months later, to 29 May 2026, where the debt is $39.2tn.
How Big That Actually Is
Two ways to picture it, because $39 trillion is not a number anyone can hold in their head.
Every government on earth, one square per percentGlobal public debt passed $100tn in 2024 on the IMF’s Fiscal Monitor numbers, across roughly 195 countries. US public debt was $40.05tn at 18 Aug 2026, which is 40% of that total. One square is one per cent of what every government in the world owes.
40% of it is America
195 countries owe about $100tn between them. One of them owes $40tn of it.
Cleared tomorrow, per headUS public debt of $40.05tn at 18 Aug 2026, divided by a US population of 342.8 million. That is every person, not every taxpayer and not every household. Newborns included.
$116,843
What it would cost every single person in America to clear it tomorrow. Not every taxpayer. Every person, newborns included.
$40,047.4bn ÷ 342.8m people
What Changed, and What Did Not
The same holdings measured two ways. In dollars they look steady. Against the debt they are funding, they collapse. Hit the toggle.
In dollars they never went anywhere. They held $4.17tn in May 2015 and $3.85tn in May 2026. The debt they were funding went from $18.2tn to $39.2tn.
Where they put it instead. Gold passed US Treasuries in the world’s central bank reserves in 2025, the first time since 1996.Shares of total foreign central bank reserves, reported September 2025: gold 27% against US Treasuries 23%. Central banks bought more than 1,000 tonnes of gold a year for three years running from 2022. Reported figures, not a Treasury release, so treat the split as widely reported rather than a primary source like the rest of this page.
The asset they had held above all others since the 1990s was American government debt. Now it is gold.
Who Replaced Them
Holdings in 2015 against today, by type of holder. Highlighted rows are the ones that hold ordinary people’s money: pensions, savings and the cash sat in investment accounts.
$13.91tn of it now sits in pensions, savings and investment cash, against $8.54tn at the Federal Reserve and foreign central banks combined.Counted as household money: money market funds, mutual funds, private pension funds, state and local pensions, and the federal trust funds that hold Social Security and federal employee retirement money. Counted as not: the Federal Reserve, and foreign central banks and governments. Every figure is the Fed Z.1 series listed in the sources below.
In 2015 the two sides were level, $6.76tn against $6.97tn. Household money has since more than doubled, up 106%, while the Fed and foreign central banks together grew 23%.
- Federal trust funds$5.06tn$7.61tn+50%
- The Federal Reserve$2.80tn$4.69tn+68%
- Foreign central banks and governments$4.17tn$3.85tn-8%
- Money market funds$508.8bn$3.43tn+574%
- Mutual funds$709.4bn$1.69tn+139%
- Private pension funds$305.0bn$607.0bn+99%
- State and local pensions$176.7bn$573.9bn+225%
2015 today your moneyRanked by size today. Same axis on every row.
What Lending to the Government Did to Savers
$10,000 in Jan 2015 held to Jul 2026, every payment reinvested, marked to market then deflated by CPI-U. Inflation over the window 41.8%.
| What you held | Statement says | Actually buys | Real change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash option, 3-month bills | $12,662 | $8,931 | -10.7% |
| Short bond fund, 1-year | $12,397 | $8,744 | -12.6% |
| Standard bond fund, 10-year | $10,761 | $7,590 | -24.1% |
| Long bond fund, 30-year* | $8,721 | $6,151 | -38.5% |
| Left in a bank savings account | $10,210 | $7,201 | -28% |
Every rung lost purchasing power. The left column is what your statement showed, the right is what that money actually buys.These are modelled constant-maturity funds, built month by month from published Treasury yields: one month of coupon income plus a price move from the change in yield. No real fund’s record went into them, and the model charges no fees. Checked against four funds you can look up, same window, dividends reinvested: BIL did $12,477 against a modelled $12,662, SHY $11,910 against $12,397, IEF $10,881 against $10,761, and TLT $8,173 against $8,721. Three of the four came in below the model, because real funds charge fees and the model does not.
* Why a bond can end below what you put in, before inflation even starts. A fund is not a bond. Buy one 30-year bond, hold it to 2045, and you get your $10,000 back at the end whatever rates do. A fund holding a constant 30-year maturity never holds anything to maturity. It is always selling bonds that have aged and buying fresh ones, so it eats the price move and never gets the money back.
30-year yields went from 2.46% in January 2015 to 5.10% in July 2026. On a duration near 19 that is about a 44% price fall, against roughly 28% of coupons collected.
It is also why the 30-year row is unfinished on the held-to-maturity view. $2,706 is coupons collected so far, not a total, and the $10,000 principal is not due until 2045. What it finally buys depends on inflation between now and then, so that cell says TBD rather than a number nobody can know.
How often a month of holding US government debt lost purchasing power, after inflation.
| Period | Months | Negative in real terms | Share | Average real return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since 1950 | 917 | 366 | 40% | 0.58% |
| Since 2000 | 317 | 186 | 59% | -0.65% |
| Last 11 years | 137 | 73 | 53% | -1.02% |
Lending Against Owning
$10,000 in January 2005, held to July 2026. Deflated by CPI-U, so these are in 2005 money. Inflation over the window was 73.7%.$10,000 invested January 2005 and held to July 2026, with dividends reinvested. Before inflation is the actual total return. After inflation divides that by the change in CPI-U over the same window, which was 73.7%, putting every figure in 2005 money. Houses are Case-Shiller national, price only, so no rent is counted and no mortgage is assumed.
A $10,000 stake. Anything under $10,000 bought less at the end than it did at the start.
Where the Foreign Holdings Sit
The Treasury records these against the custodian, not the owner, and says so on its own table. The UK, Belgium, Luxembourg, Cayman Islands and Ireland numbers are financial centres, not those countries’ savings. China’s real holding is higher than what you see here, because some of it sits in Belgium through Euroclear.
That is why the chart further up uses the Treasury’s Foreign Official total instead. It counts what central banks and governments own no matter which country the securities are parked in, so custody cannot skew it. Treat this table as background, and the chart as the actual evidence.
| Custodian location | May 2015 | May 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Other | $242.7bn | $1.85tn | +662.8% |
| Japan | $1.22tn | $1.14tn | -6.3% |
| United Kingdom | $166.9bn | $948.6bn | +468.4% |
| China | $1.27tn | $659.3bn | -48.1% |
| Belgium | $362.4bn | $472.0bn | +30.2% |
| Cayman Islands | $167.6bn | $471.3bn | +181.2% |
| Luxembourg | $141.5bn | $436.0bn | +208.1% |
| Canada | $62.8bn | $435.8bn | +593.9% |
| France | $65.4bn | $393.1bn | +501.1% |
| Ireland | $170.0bn | $357.2bn | +110.1% |
| Taiwan | $174.4bn | $306.0bn | +75.5% |
| Switzerland | $174.0bn | $281.1bn | +61.6% |
| Singapore | $97.5bn | $278.0bn | +185.1% |
| Hong Kong | $155.2bn | $271.9bn | +75.2% |
| Norway | $85.3bn | $207.3bn | +143% |
| India | $70.1bn | $181.3bn | +158.6% |
| Brazil | $250.1bn | $168.9bn | -32.5% |
| Saudi Arabia | $87.9bn | $140.3bn | +59.6% |
| Israel | $19.9bn | $117.6bn | +491% |
Method, and Three Things This Data Cannot Tell You
- These figures are recorded against the custodian, not the owner. Financial-centre totals are not national savings, and reading them as national savings is the easiest way to get this data wrong.
- 2022 was mostly price, not selling. Foreign official holdings fell 11.8% that year, against a Bloomberg US Treasury Index return of −12.5%. Tested country by country, only 7 of 32 sold beyond the price effect and 17 added. The dip in the chart is not a sanctions-driven exit. The claim is that they stopped funding the growth, not that they left.
- The Fed’s “Households and nonprofit organizations” line is excluded on purpose. It is a residual that sweeps in hedge funds and private equity, per the Fed’s own documentation. Including it would show +822% and would overstate how much of this is ordinary retail money.
- The savings ladder is modelled, not observed. Each maturity is a simulated constant-maturity fund built from published Treasury yields: one month of coupon income, plus a price move from the change in yield, compounded. No real fund’s track record was used to produce those figures, and the model charges no fees. It is checked against BIL, SHY, IEF and TLT, and three of those four came in slightly below the model rather than above it. The figures sit behind the information marker on that table.
Sources
- US Treasury, Treasury International Capital, Table 5Foreign holdings by custodian, and the Foreign Official memo line that carries the chart.
- FRED GFDEBTNTotal US public debt, quarterly. Used for the 2015 and 2026 comparison figures.
- US Treasury, Debt to the PennyDaily debt outstanding. Used for the month-end points on the chart.
- Federal Reserve Financial Accounts, Z.1Holder sectors: BOGZ1FL633061105Q, BOGZ1LM653061105Q, BOGZ1FL573061105Q, BOGZ1LM223061143Q, FDHBATN, FDHBFRBN.
- Real fund total returns, dividends reinvested: BIL, SHY, IEF and TLT, January 2015 to July 2026.Used to check the modelled ladder against funds anyone can look up. Any provider of adjusted closing prices will reproduce these.
- FRED CPIAUCSLCPI-U, used to deflate every real return. Inflation over 2015-01 to 2026-07 was 41.8%.